Jan 21, 2025 5 min read

Global AI Hopes, IT->HR, Teen Adoption, Gemini Local Search

Dialog: Exchange Number 14

Survey: Global AI Excitement

We're obviously bullish on AI and its benefits for local business owners, marketing agencies, SaaS companies and consumers. We also recognize legitimate concerns about quality, job displacement and other "negatives" that need to be considered. But a new Google-sponsored report downplays the risks and concerns and reads more like a report-length press release than objective research. Nonetheless, it is noteworthy as the largest survey to date on AI adoption. Fielded in September of last year, it has 21K consumer-respondents from 21 countries.

The survey found that 48% globally had used generative AI in 2024. The numbers are lower in North America. Dialog's November survey of US consumers found that 44% of US adults had "ever used" generative AI. However the Google report shows 29% for the US adult population. In March 2024, Pew's number was 23%.

Source: Google-IPSOS survey, n=21K, ~1K US respondents

The strongest AI adoption growth appears in "emerging markets." Regionally Asia (52%) leads Europe (42%) and the US (29%) in overall penetration. The survey found general AI excitement outweighs concerns across markets and people want AI innovation more than government regulation. Nearly three quarters (74%) of AI users (a subset of the overall sample) said they use AI for work. There's no discussion of specific brands or tools being used – a major omission.

Google, OpenAI and its peers don't want AI regulation in any of their markets. Europe already has a law in place but the US does not. Trump just killed Biden's executive order intended to create a "safe" framework for AI development in the US. In the study, Google and IPSOS generated these results by focusing almost exclusively on economic, scientific and healthcare benefits. And while many of the results are certainly valid, the "agenda" was to generate a document that would promote Google's AI cause (without mentioning ChatGPT).

News & Noteworthy

Perplexity seeking to merge with TikTok.
Trump revokes Biden admin AI rules around AI development.
Trump set to announce new "AI infrastructure" initiative.
Opinion: ChatGPT not OpenAI's "real" product, which is APIs for third parties.
AI being integrated into defense industry, speeding up the "kill chain."
Remote workers may get the sack and be replaced by AI.
Goldman Sachs CEO: 95% of an S-1 filing can now be done by AI "in minutes."
The future of surgery increasingly involves robots.
Oscar contender The Brutalist faces backlash for use of AI on production.

IT the New HR

During his CES keynote earlier this month, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argued that IT's role in organizations will dramatically change with the adoption of AI agents. Increasingly, organizations will have "digital workers," which will likely be "hired" and managed by the IT department. If this turns out to be the true it will require a reimagining of IT and its role in the organization. This hints and something we've been thinking about for some time: how AI will force companies to rethink workflows and even organizational structures. As a basic matter, the entry level layer of workers may be entirely eliminated in some companies; and companies may be flatter with fewer workers overall. This may happen very rapidly in some formerly high-paying white collar professions (e.g., banking, law, accounting).

Teen Adoption of ChatGPT

According to data from the Pew Research Center, 26% of American teens have used ChatGPT as a homework assistant. That's double the number in 2023. And it increases to 31% for high school students. Nearly 80% of US teens have "heard of" ChatGPT and those "most familiar with ChatGPT are more likely to use it." A majority (56%) of those who've "heard a lot about it" tend to use it more. Why do we care about this? This is ChatGPT's "pipeline." So far, for American teens, ChatGPT is to Gemini, what the iPhone is to Android.

Google will seek to "disrupt" ChatGPT's early dominance of the youth AI market, as they sought to disrupt the Mac's dominance in education with cheap Chromebooks. However for many teens, as Google CEO Sundar Pichai fears, ChatGPT is already synonymous with AI.

Dialog Data: Gemini and Local Search

In our Q4 consumer survey we asked respondents, "Have you used an AI application to find local business information?" The majority in both groups said yes. Interestingly, a higher percentage of Gemini users (66%) said yes than ChatGPT users (58%). In a separate question, 32% of all respondents aid they actually preferred AI over traditional search to find local business information. Preference for AI for local search was slightly higher for Gemini users.

Have you used AI for local business information?

Is this meaningful? Maybe. Right now, Gemini does a generally better job with local search questions than ChatGPT because it's drawing upon Google's data and local graph. And while the data Gemini provides is not as good or complete as Google, it's generally better than ChatGPT (Perplexity is improving).

Gemini users' inclination to conduct local queries suggests that Gemini could capture some of Google's local search volume over time. This recognition might lead Google to "hold back" on improving the local search UX on Gemini, which offers a cleaner UI and (for now) ad-free experience.